Kenya is experiencing growing concerns over the availability of fresh milk, with consumers in several parts of the country reporting low stocks, missing brands and higher prices. The situation has become particularly noticeable in Nairobi, where some supermarkets and retail outlets have introduced purchase limits as processors and distributors struggle to maintain normal supplies.

The current situation has been described by the Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) as a temporary supply constraint rather than a complete national milk shortage. Nevertheless, the reduction in milk deliveries to processors has raised concerns among consumers, farmers, traders and industry stakeholders about the stability of Kenya’s dairy sector.

Recent reports indicate that formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July 2026, representing a decline of about 3.7 per cent. The KDB has also indicated that preliminary signs point to further reductions in August, although the final August figures were still being compiled. 

 *What is causing the milk shortage?* 

One of the main factors behind the current shortage is the deterioration of weather conditions in major milk-producing regions. Dry and cold conditions have reduced the availability of pasture and fodder, leaving dairy farmers with fewer resources to feed their animals adequately.

Milk production depends heavily on the quantity and quality of feed available to cows. When pasture dries up, farmers are forced to purchase additional feeds, including hay, dairy meal and other commercial supplements. For small-scale farmers, the additional expense can be difficult to sustain.

Reports indicate that some farmers who previously harvested between seven and nine litres of milk per cow per day have seen production fall to approximately four or five litres. Such reductions have a direct impact on the amount of milk available to cooperatives and processors. 

The situation is particularly important because smallholder farmers play a major role in Kenya's dairy industry. According to a 2024 cost-of-production report, smallholder farmers account for approximately 80 per cent of Kenya's milk production. 

This means that difficulties faced by individual farmers can quickly translate into national supply challenges.

Dry weather and declining pasture

The current weather situation is one of the most important issues affecting milk production. Dairy cows require sufficient water and nutritious feed to maintain high milk yields. When pasture becomes scarce, animals may lose body condition, while farmers may struggle to provide enough supplementary feed.

The National Drought Management Authority reported that more than half of the monitored arid and semi-arid counties recorded milk production below their long-term averages in July 2026. The decline was associated with diminishing pasture and browse, longer distances to water and worsening livestock body conditions. 

For pastoral communities, the challenge can be even more severe because livestock keepers may be forced to move animals to areas where pasture and water are still available.

The effects of drought are therefore not limited to the dairy farmer. They extend throughout the milk supply chain, from the farm to the cooperative, processor, distributor, retailer and finally the consumer.

High cost of animal feed

Another major problem is the high cost of dairy feed.

The Kenya Dairy Board has previously estimated that the cost of producing one litre of milk ranges between approximately Sh30 and Sh37, depending on the farming system and scale of production. Rising costs of feeds, electricity and other farm inputs have put pressure on farmers' profitability. 

Farmers who practise zero-grazing are particularly exposed to increases in feed prices because their animals depend heavily on purchased feeds.

When the price of feed rises but the price farmers receive for milk does not increase at the same rate, farmers have fewer incentives to expand production. Some may reduce the quantity of feed provided to their animals, while others may sell livestock or shift milk into informal markets where payment is faster.

This creates a difficult cycle: expensive feed reduces profitability, lower profitability discourages investment, reduced investment affects production and declining production contributes to shortages.

Impact on supermarkets and consumers

The effects of the supply problem have become visible in supermarkets and retail shops, particularly in Nairobi.

Some outlets have reported empty or sparsely stocked shelves, while certain popular milk brands and pack sizes have become harder to find. Some supermarkets have also introduced limits on the quantity of milk customers can purchase. 

The shortage has also affected consumers who depend on fresh pasteurised milk for daily household consumption.

According to the Kenya Dairy Board, pasteurised milk has been more affected by the current supply constraints, while long-life products such as UHT and ESL milk have generally remained more available. 

For families, milk is an important part of the daily diet. It is consumed directly and is also used to prepare tea, porridge, cereals and other foods. Therefore, disruptions in milk availability can have consequences beyond the dairy industry.

Some retailers have reported increases of several shillings on 500-millilitre packets in areas experiencing tighter supplies. 

If the shortage persists, consumers could face further price increases, particularly if processors continue to receive inadequate quantities of raw milk.

Impact on dairy farmers

Although consumers are feeling the shortage, dairy farmers are also among those most affected.

At first glance, a shortage might appear to be good news for farmers because reduced supply could potentially result in higher prices. However, the situation is more complicated.

Farmers are dealing with high production costs at the same time that their cows are producing less milk. A farmer whose cow's daily production falls significantly may not necessarily earn more money even if the market price increases slightly.

The cost of purchasing feed, accessing water, transporting milk and maintaining livestock continues regardless of whether milk yields are high or low.

There are also concerns about payment arrangements. Some farmers may prefer selling milk through informal channels if they can receive cash immediately rather than waiting for payments from formal processors or cooperatives. This can reduce the volume of milk entering the formal processing system.

The result is a situation in which milk may exist in certain local markets while processors in other areas experience shortages.

Formal and informal milk markets

Kenya has a significant informal milk market. Many consumers purchase raw milk directly from farmers, milk vendors and small outlets.

The informal market can provide farmers with an alternative source of income, particularly when formal processors delay payments or offer prices that farmers consider unattractive.

However, movement of milk outside formal processing channels can make it more difficult for processors to maintain supplies of packaged milk for supermarkets and other retailers.

Industry stakeholders have therefore emphasized the importance of improving incentives for farmers to supply formal processors consistently.

Milk processors are also under pressure

The shortage cannot be blamed entirely on farmers.

Milk processors are facing their own operational challenges, including higher fuel, energy, labour and distribution costs. One industry executive cited by The Star said some processors have been reducing pasteurised milk production and shifting toward higher-value products such as yoghurt, ice cream and cheese because of high operating costs. 

This is important because the amount of raw milk available does not automatically determine how much fresh packaged milk reaches consumers.

A processor needs adequate working capital, packaging materials, transportation, electricity and distribution networks to move milk from farms to retail shelves.

Consequently, shortages in shops can sometimes be caused by a combination of reduced production, processing decisions and distribution problems.

Why the shortage matters to Kenya's economy

The dairy industry is an important component of Kenya's agricultural economy.

Millions of households depend directly or indirectly on livestock and dairy farming. Farmers earn income from milk, while cooperatives, transporters, processors, retailers and other businesses depend on the industry.

A prolonged milk shortage could therefore have wider economic effects.

Farmers could earn less because of declining production. Processors could face higher costs and reduced output. Retailers could lose sales when popular products disappear from shelves. Consumers could be forced to spend more on milk or substitute it with other products.

The situation also has implications for food security and nutrition.

Milk provides protein, calcium, fat and other nutrients. Children, students, pregnant women and other groups often consume milk regularly. Sustained increases in prices could make milk less affordable for low-income households.

Government response

The Kenya Dairy Board has attempted to reassure the public that the country is not experiencing a complete disappearance of milk from the market.

The Board says supplies remain available, although some regions are experiencing temporary constraints. It has linked the current problem largely to seasonal production conditions and expects supply to improve when rainfall restores pasture and fodder availability. 

The expected October-November-December rainfall period could therefore be important for the dairy industry. If rainfall is sufficient, pasture could recover, water availability could improve and farmers could reduce their dependence on expensive purchased feeds.

However, relying solely on rainfall would leave the dairy sector vulnerable to future droughts.

Need for long-term solutions

Kenya needs longer-term strategies to protect dairy production from unpredictable weather.

One important solution is investment in fodder production. Farmers can be encouraged to grow and preserve feeds such as nappier grass, maize silage and other suitable fodder crops. Proper storage would enable farmers to maintain feed reserves during dry periods.

Water harvesting is another important intervention. Dairy farms need reliable water supplies not only for livestock but also for fodder production and farm operations.

Improved access to affordable animal feed would also help. In July 2026, the government and farmers launched a Sh500 million feed mill project in Meru intended to reduce feed costs and improve dairy farmers' earnings. The facility was established through contributions from government and farmers. 

Such investments could help reduce the vulnerability of farmers to sudden increases in feed prices.

Cooperatives can play an important role

Dairy cooperatives are also critical to solving Kenya's milk supply challenges.

Strong cooperatives can help farmers access markets, negotiate better prices, obtain inputs and access cooling and storage facilities.

They can also help reduce post-harvest losses by ensuring that milk is collected quickly and transported under appropriate conditions.

Better payment systems would encourage farmers to continue supplying formal markets.

If farmers are confident that they will receive fair and timely payments, they may be less likely to divert milk to informal traders.

The importance of cold storage

Milk is highly perishable. Without adequate cooling facilities, farmers can lose large quantities of milk before it reaches consumers.

Investment in milk coolers, especially in rural production areas, can therefore help stabilize supplies.

Solar-powered milk coolers could be particularly useful in areas where electricity is unreliable or unavailable. They can enable farmers and cooperatives to preserve milk for longer and reduce losses.

The government has already supported dairy initiatives involving solar-powered milk cooling facilities, demonstrating the potential of technology in strengthening the supply chain. 

Will the shortage continue?

The immediate outlook depends heavily on weather conditions, farmer production and the ability of processors and distributors to maintain supplies.

The Kenya Dairy Board expects the situation to improve when rainfall restores pasture and fodder. However, the Board has acknowledged that August supplies appeared to be declining further, meaning consumers could continue experiencing intermittent shortages in the short term. 

Therefore, the situation should be viewed as more than simply a temporary supermarket problem. It highlights the vulnerability of Kenya's dairy supply chain to climate conditions, production costs and market disruptions.