The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued its October 2026 monthly weather forecast, warning of a significant shift in weather conditions as Kenya enters the October–November–December short-rains season. The monthly forecast was issued on October 1, 2026, and comes at a time when several parts of the country are transitioning from the relatively dry conditions experienced during much of August and September to wetter conditions. KMD has also continued issuing daily and seven-day forecasts to provide more specific information as weather systems change. 

According to the October outlook, above-average rainfall is expected in a large number of counties, while several other areas are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. The forecast is particularly important for farmers, motorists, people living in flood-prone areas and communities in regions that have experienced prolonged dry conditions.

October expected to bring increased rainfall

October is traditionally an important transition month in Kenya because it marks the beginning of the short-rains season in many parts of the country. KMD's latest forecast indicates that rainfall will increase in different regions at different times rather than beginning simultaneously throughout the country.

Areas along the Coast have already been experiencing rainfall, while some Central and Eastern counties are expected to receive more significant rains from approximately the second to third week of October. Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and neighbouring areas are among the regions expected to see the transition to wetter conditions during this period. 

KMD's monthly forecast places Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera among areas with higher probabilities of above-average rainfall. Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir are also included in the areas where above-average rainfall is expected. 

The forecast further identifies Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri among areas expected to receive above-average rainfall during October. Parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok are also included in the forecast. 

Western Kenya and Rift Valley

Western Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley are also expected to experience significant rainfall during the month. KMD's October outlook indicates near-average to above-average rainfall for counties including Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.

Parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia are also expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall. 

This represents a notable change from earlier forecasts for August and September, when several counties in western Kenya and the Rift Valley were expected to experience relatively drier conditions. The August–October outlook had previously indicated below-average rainfall in a number of western and Rift Valley counties, with the situation expected to change as October progressed. 

Yesterday's weather update

The weather update issued on October 1, 2026, provided a more immediate picture of the transition into the rainy season. KMD had not declared the full onset of the October–December rains at that point, despite forecasting rainfall in many areas.

A report published on October 1 indicated that light rains and showers were expected in 36 counties, beginning from the weekend and continuing into the following week. Importantly, meteorologists emphasized that these initial showers should not automatically be interpreted as the official onset of the full October–December rainy season. 

The five-day forecast around that period identified rainfall possibilities in Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Embu, among other areas. 

This means Kenyans should expect weather conditions to change gradually, with some areas receiving rainfall earlier than others.

Heavy rainfall and flooding concerns

One of the major issues associated with the October forecast is the possibility of heavy rainfall events. Above-average rainfall does not mean that every day will be rainy. Instead, it means the accumulated rainfall during the forecast period could exceed the long-term average in the affected areas.

Heavy rainfall can create several challenges, especially in urban areas and low-lying locations. Nairobi and other rapidly growing towns can experience flash flooding when intense rainfall occurs over a short period, particularly where drainage systems are unable to accommodate large volumes of water.

Farmers and residents in areas near rivers, streams and steep slopes therefore need to pay attention to subsequent KMD warnings. The monthly forecast provides the broad outlook, while daily and seven-day forecasts provide more precise information about particular rainfall events. KMD maintains dedicated daily, five-day, seven-day and county-level forecasting products for this purpose. 

Temperatures expected to rise

October is also expected to bring changing temperatures across Kenya. The month represents a transition from the cooler June-July-August period toward the warmer conditions associated with the short-rains season.

KMD's forecast indicates that temperatures will vary significantly depending on altitude and location. Highland areas are generally expected to remain cooler, while low-lying and arid areas can experience considerably higher daytime temperatures.

As the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves southwards across East Africa, temperatures, humidity and cloud cover are expected to increase in many parts of Kenya. 

Consequently, Kenyans may experience a combination of warm afternoons, cloudy periods, rainfall and cooler conditions following rainfall, particularly in highland areas.

Importance to farmers

The October forecast is particularly important to Kenya's agricultural sector. Farmers who have been waiting for the short rains can use the changing weather conditions to plan planting, land preparation and other farm activities.

However, farmers are also advised to avoid making decisions based solely on the monthly forecast. Rainfall can vary substantially within individual counties. KMD's county forecasts and shorter-term updates can provide more useful information for deciding when to plant and when to undertake other agricultural activities. The department specifically provides county-level forecasts designed to support local planning and preparedness. 

Adequate rainfall could also improve pasture and water availability in areas that have experienced dry conditions. At the same time, excessive rainfall can cause soil erosion, crop damage, waterlogging and destruction of roads and bridges.

Importance for transport and daily activities

The expected increase in rainfall will also affect transport and other daily activities. Heavy downpours can reduce visibility on roads, make some roads slippery and increase the possibility of flooding.

Motorists are therefore expected to exercise greater caution during periods of heavy rain. Pedestrians should also avoid crossing flooded roads and swollen rivers.

For people travelling long distances, checking the latest daily or seven-day forecast before departure can help them prepare for changing conditions. KMD describes its seven-day forecast as a tool intended to support agricultural planning, disaster management and personal activities. 

October–December season

The October forecast should also be viewed within the wider October–November–December 2026 seasonal outlook. KMD has published the OND 2026 seasonal forecast alongside a technical statement from the National Climate Outlook Forum.

The seasonal outlook points toward enhanced rainfall in many parts of Kenya during the short-rains season. This means the October conditions are part of a broader seasonal transition rather than an isolated weather event.

However, seasonal forecasts describe expected patterns rather than guaranteeing rainfall on a particular day. Actual conditions can change, which is why KMD continues updating its forecasts.

What Kenyans should expect

Based on the October forecast and the latest update from October 1, Kenyans should prepare for increasing rainfall, occasional heavy downpours, rising humidity and changing temperatures as the month progresses.

Coastal counties are already experiencing rainfall, while Central and Eastern Kenya are expected to see a stronger transition toward wetter conditions from the middle part of October. Nairobi and surrounding counties are among the areas identified for above-average rainfall.

Western Kenya and the Rift Valley are also expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, although rainfall amounts and timing will vary from one county to another. 

The most important message from the latest forecast is therefore the need for preparedness. Farmers should monitor updates before planting, residents in flood-prone areas should remain alert, motorists should exercise caution during heavy rainfall, and communities should pay attention to official warnings.

The Kenya Meteorological Department's October 2026 monthly forecast is now officially available, while daily and weekly forecasts continue to provide updated information as weather conditions develop.